December Jobs Day Fact Sheet
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Fratto on Marketplace: Time for Plan C?
It was called “Plan B”. It was a Republican effort to avoid some of the tax increases that are part of the fiscal cliff.
The White House had always planned to veto it, as Press Secretary Jay Carney detailed before the vote.
“The Republicans in the House have decided to run down an alley that has no exit,” he said.
But Republicans didn’t even get very far down the alley. In a Washington surprise, Plan B fell last night, after House Speaker John Boehner failed to muster the support in his own party to pass it. He sent Congress home for Christmas and said in a statement that it’s now up to the Senate to work with the president to avoid the fiscal cliff.
“What we saw here was Republicans trying to take Plan B to the House, trying to get a measure through that would include tax hikes on those making over $1 million,” says Tim Mak, a reporter with Politico. “And we realized that Republicans just couldn’t get it through the House. And …
FOMC December Surprise
By Patrick Sims, 202-822-1205, psims@hamiltonps.com
Below is the second HPS Insight Weekly Housing Research Note.
THE EXPECTED AND UNEXPECTED FOMC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Last Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced two new policy initiatives, one expected and one unexpected. Expected was the Committee’s decision to purchase longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion a month. As we noted last week, the end of Operation Twist and low growth forecasts made additional stimulative measures likely. Unexpected was the Committee’s decision to maintain the Fed Funds rate between 0 and 0.25 percent as long as 1) the unemployment rate remains above 6.5 percent; 2) inflation projections over a one to two year time horizon remains below 2.5 percent; and 3) long-term inflation expectations continue to be well-anchored. These quantitative thresholds are a shift away from communicating that rates would remain low for an extended period of time. So what is the thinking that led to these two policy initiatives?
On October 11, Boston Fed President Jeremy Stein made the case that large scale asset purchases …
U.S. Treasury: Strengthening Our Financial System
Analysis from the U.S. Treasury, December 17, 2012
View U.S. Treasury analysis of funding costs of large and small banks here.
View U.S. Treasury analysis of credit default swaps showing progress on TBTF here.
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U.S. Treasury: Strengthening Our Financial System
Analysis by the U.S. Treasury, December 17, 2013
View U.S. Treasury analysis of credit default swaps showing progress on TBTF here.
Click to view full presentation.…
U.S. Treasury: Strengthening Our Financial System
Analysis from the U.S. Treasury, December 17, 2012
View U.S. Treasury analysis of funding costs of large and small banks here.
Click to view PDF/Right-click to save
Click here to view full presentation.…
HPS Insight Weekly Housing Research Note
By Patrick Sims, 822-1205, psims@hamiltonps.com
FED MBS HOLDINGS ARE REDUCING RATES BUT TRANSMISSION EFFECT VERY REAL
The biggest housing-related news came early this week when William Dudley, President of the Federal Reserve of New York, gave a speech summarizing a paper by New York Fed staff titled “The Rising Gap Between Primary and Secondary Mortgage Rates.” Dudley said the Fed’s decision in September to purchase an additional $40 billion a month of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) is a sign that “Quantitative Easing” is working; current MBS yields declined roughly 45 basis points while the Freddie Mac 30-year rate declined 23 basis points. However, there are impediments to current policy: the yield that the Fed is receiving in the primary market is significantly lower than actual mortgage rates available to the consumer (Exhibit 1).
Historically, the spread hovered between 30 and 50 basis points. In September, it rose above 150 basis points. There are several reasons cited for this anomaly. Outside of the actual paper, Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal provides what …
November Jobs Day Fact Sheet
Here is our November Jobs Day Fact Sheet.
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Balancing on the Cliff
By Matt McDonald and Russ Grote, (202)-822-1205, mmcdonald@hamiltonps.com
Balance is in the eye of the beholder. In the case of the fiscal cliff, the President has focused his argument for balance on the need for higher taxes on the wealthy in addition to spending cuts. But it is equally true that no deal will be balanced if entitlement reform is not a part of it.
Without entitlement reform, no deal will be balanced in the long-run and the U.S. will careen from one “Grand Bargain” to another over a period of years.
For Republicans, this means negotiating from a higher tax base the next time we need a “Grand Bargain.” Essentially, if Republicans give in on tax rates without entitlement cuts today, they will cede a larger government without really solving fundamental long-term problems.
Rather than complicating negotiations, acknowledging the centrality of entitlement reform for “balance” can open up potential compromises that fall along current messages from both parties. Additionally, compromise on long-run issues could create the necessary political space to maintain or even increase …
5 Corporate Communications Lessons from the 2012 Campaign – Corporate Counsel
Article published here.
By Rustin Silverstein, 202-822-1205, rsilverstein@hamiltonps.com
Before the 2012 presidential campaign recedes from memory, it’s worthwhile to reflect on some of its lessons for in-house counsel working in companies that are subject to public scrutiny:
1. NOTHING IS OFF THE RECORD
At a time when everyone carries a smartphone with a video recorder in their pocket, no statement can be assumed to remain private for long.
President Barack Obama learned this lesson during the 2008 campaign when he was surreptitiously recorded claiming that small-town voters “get bitter” and “cling to guns or religion.”
Republican candidate Mitt Romney was reminded of it when he was unknowingly—and now infamously—caught on video explaining that 47 percent of Americans “are dependent upon government” and “believe that they are victims.” Indeed, recent reports of Romney’s post-election comments on a conference call with campaign donors have him attributing his loss to governmental “gifts” bestowed upon voters, which indicates that this lesson still may not have sunk in.
2. THE MESSENGER IS THE MESSAGE
If a company or …