Another winter of hope, another spring of disappointment. With just 115,000 new jobs, and a drop in the unemployment rate driven entirely by people leaving the workforce (the household survey actually showed job losses for the second month in a row), the April jobs number disappointed even low expectations. After multiple years of spring slumps and constant revising up of previous months, it bears discussion of whether the seasonal adjustments done by BLS need to be updated.
Regardless of the statistics, the political implications are interesting. If trends continue, the White House will likely be able to point to an unemployment rate below 8 percent by Election Day. Consider this: over the past year, labor force participation has dropped by 0.6 percent, the equivalent of about 1.4 million people dropping out of the workforce (or not entering in the first place). If that trend were to continue, we’d need just 64,000 jobs per month to break 8 percent by…
Coming off a winter full of good economic news, the market was willing to look past a host of risks. As employment gains continue to lag and other economic indicators do more to muddy our perception of the economy, the market will turn its focus to the uncertainty surrounding upcoming events.
Even as these external risks present political challenges for the President, the unemployment rate will likely fall below or somewhere around 8 percent as we move into the latter-half of 2012. If participation rate stays at 63.8 percent, the President only needs 176,000 jobs per month to get below 8 percent.
Despite its continued progress, here are a few of the upcoming risk factors:
Recession in Europe – Restructuring of debt and newly imposed austerity measures are acting counterproductive to their stated goal, killing prospects for growth. With further downgrades of sovereign debt, the rest of 2012 will be a roller-coaster ride for EU member countries and the
HPS Launches HPS Advocacy and Names Lauren Crawford as Partner
Posted on April 26, 2012 by russgrote
Washington, DC – Hamilton Place Strategies is excited to announce HPS Advocacy, a new practice offering clients an extensive suite of grassroots capabilities in all 50 states. Lauren Crawford, who joins the firm as partner, will lead the new practice.
Crawford brings extensive grassroots experience across a range of industries and a vast on-the-ground network at the state and local level. HPS Advocacy will help take the argument out of Washington through compelling campaigns that mobilize supporters around the country
“Grassroots is an important strategic step for Hamilton Place Strategies,” said Managing Partner Tony Fratto, “and so we’re really excited that Lauren was able to join our team and build this business. Lauren’s a perfect fit for HPS and I know she’ll help us deliver more results for our clients.”
Prior to joining HPS, Crawford was a Partner and co-founder of a boutique grassroots firm and also worked at the Dewey Square Group. Crawford also worked with the Hillary Clinton for President campaign in Iowa, Nevada and Washington and has additional campaign experience in Ohio and with the…
Merger activity in the banking sector faces a fundamental tension in the years to come: new regulation has made efficiency gains from mergers more attractive; and at the same time, regulatory scrutiny of mergers has increased, especially for larger firms. The implication of this dynamic is that firms that are better able to navigate public scrutiny and the regulatory approval process for mergers will be at a strategic advantage versus their competitors.
We expect an increase in mergers due to incentives in economies of scale and increased regulation:
Operating efficiency and profitability favor large firms by 49 and 75 percent, respectively.
Increased regulation disproportionately hurts smaller firms, as they have historically seen higher compliance costs than their larger peers.
Consolidation will continue on its historical trend, as there were over 7,500 FDIC-regulated banks as of 2011, compared to roughly 9,700 just 10 years prior.
How Taxmageddon could ultimately affect the US economy (with multiple scenarios played out) http://t.co/gbTKSkks1 hour ago
"How the Taxation of Labor and Transfer Payments Affect Growth and Employment" http://t.co/g3946YZz Simon Johnson at Congress this Wednesday 2 hours ago
